Trump's 'America First' approach may weaken the Quad

NIKKEI Asia
Prof. Syed Munir Khasru
November 19, 2024

Link: https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Trump-s-America-First-approach-may-weaken-the-Quad
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The future of the Quad faces new uncertainty with Donald Trump securing a second term as U.S. president.

The group -- consisting of the U.S., Australia, India and Japan -- has become a strategic component of Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy under President Joe Biden. But now Trump's focus on bilateral agreements and "America First" policies could unravel the progress Biden's team had carefully built, leaving the region more vulnerable to Chinese influence.

While Biden embraced multilateralism as essential to regional stability, Trump's election success came from his focus on domestic priorities. The president-elect's approach has traditionally emphasized selective, transactional partnerships, which may impact the Quad's structure and objectives.
Under the outgoing president, the Quad has served as the foundation for a broader "lattice of cooperation" in Asia -- a term introduced by U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to describe the flexible yet strong partnerships the U.S. has cultivated. The "latticework" approach has created interlinked relationships between Washington and its allies, with new lines of cooperation emerging among regional partners themselves, such as between Japan and the Philippines, or Australia and Japan. Biden's efforts include elevating the Quad meetings to leaders' level and holding multiple high-profile summits.

The 2024 Quad summit was held in September in Biden's home state of Delaware. It was seen as a victory lap for the president's Asia strategy, highlighting how the group has transformed from a regional concept into an active framework supporting maritime security, cybersecurity and economic resilience. Despite global challenges such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the Biden administration has worked consistently to sustain cooperation, showing the America's commitment to regional stability. This approach has extended beyond the Quad to other security structures like AUKUS -- a trilateral partnership involving the U.S., the U.K. and Australia, and the "Squad" alliance of the U.S., Australia, Japan and the Philippines.

While Biden's strategy has solidified relationships with significant allies, it also highlights certain limitations. America's primary engagements in Asia have focused on Quad nations, with nearly 40% of high-level diplomatic activity directed toward them. This targeted engagement strategy, though effective within the Quad framework, has limited Washington's broader influence in Asia, especially among nonaligned countries that are essential to the regional architecture. China, by contrast, has maintained high-level diplomatic contact with nearly all countries in Asia, further extending its influence.

This narrow approach contrasts with Europe, where most countries are NATO allies. In Asia, however, U.S. treaty allies are the exception, and nonaligned countries form the majority within institutions like ASEAN. For the U.S. to extend its influence beyond the Quad, broader economic and diplomatic engagement would have been required.

A Trump-led administration is likely to prioritize direct, transactional engagements over maintaining a complex latticework of partnerships. During his first term, Trump's foreign policy was shaped by an "America First" approach, often viewing alliances as one-sided agreements rather than reciprocal partnerships. His administration's skepticism toward multilateral commitments created challenges for allies in Asia, who were left uncertain about America's long-term intentions and wary of sudden policy changes.

If Trump adopts a similar approach in his second term, it might deprioritize the Quad, preferring bilateral interactions that align more directly with Washington's. interests. This shift could reduce Washington's engagement in the Indo-Pacific, causing Quad partners to reconsider their reliance on America and potentially seek alternate security arrangements. This might open the door for China to expand its influence among Indo-Pacific nations, undermining the unified stance that Biden's administration worked to build.

The Quad has become a central element in maintaining balance in the Indo-Pacific, where China's ambitions continue to grow. As the U.S. remains indispensable in preventing any single nation from dominating the region, consistent leadership and engagement are essential. Japan and Australia have increasingly taken on active roles in regional security, and India has positioned itself as a significant force within the Global South. However, the Asia Power Index shows that Japan and India each have only about half the power that China does, emphasizing the importance of U.S. involvement as a counterbalance.
Biden's administration demonstrated that the U.S. values the coalition not only as a defense mechanism but also as a broader framework for economic and technological cooperation. A Trump presidency could reintroduce unpredictability, prompting allies to reassess their alignment with U.S. policies.

Biden's latticework strategy highlights the impact of a unified Indo-Pacific approach, but it also reveals the inherent limitations of a strategy focused on a few key partners. Nonaligned Asian countries are numerous and central to institutions like ASEAN, which plays a fundamental role in regional diplomacy. The stakes in the Indo-Pacific are high: A shift back to a more bilateral, transactional focus under a Trump presidency risks undermining the Quad's broader goals and opening the door for increased Chinese influence, potentially reshaping the power dynamics across Asia.

To sustain a balanced, stable Indo-Pacific, the U.S. must maintain its commitment to robust multilateral engagement. Building on momentum of the Quad and related frameworks, the U.S. needs to continue nurturing partnerships and advancing collaborative solutions across the region. Only through consistent, inclusive American leadership can the Indo-Pacific preserve its delicate balance of power and prosperity for the long term. The stakes are high, and the Trump-led U.S. administration must rise to the occasion to shape a peaceful, stable future for this critical part of the world.